IDC: China‘s mobile phone market is expected to rebound in 2024

Source: Home of IT Author: Wang Miao

    On December 18, it was reported that China‘s smartphone market in 2022 was facing unprecedented challenges due to the impact of the external environment, mobile technology development, consumer demand, etc.

    The impact of the epidemic continues, and the economic environment and consumer confidence need to be restored for a longer time. Inventory pressure still exists in the first half of the year. It is estimated that in 2023, the shipment volume of China‘s mobile phone market will decline 0.9% year on year, narrowing the decline; A rebound is expected in 2024.

     In addition, in recent years, the performance of mobile phones has been excessive, new product innovation has been insufficient, and no new "killer" applications have appeared in software, resulting in a lack of mobility for consumers. Although the epidemic prevention policy began to relax, the impact of the epidemic will continue to restrict going out for a period of time. Compared with large screen terminals such as tablets and PCs, consumers‘ demand for mobile phones mainly used in mobile scenarios continues to decline. China‘s smartphone replacement cycle is expected to increase to 34 months.

    It is learned that the report of the Chinese Academy of Information and Communications in September 2022 shows that the mobile phone shipments in the domestic market are 20.922 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, including 15.104 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, accounting for 72.2% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period.

    In terms of shipments in the third quarter, Samsung ranked first with 64 million units, and Apple ranked second with 51.9 million units. It was followed by 40.5 million Xiaomi, 25.9 million Vivo and 25.8 million OPPO. Apple grew 1.6% over the same period, while Samsung fell 7.8% and Xiaomi fell 8.6%. Vivo and OPPO decreased by more than 20% respectively.

    IDC said that although Android mobile phone brand manufacturers and the supply chain still hold a cautious wait-and-see view, the Q3-Q4 smartphone industry is expected to reach the bottom this year when the supply chain has slowed down for 1.5 years and the inventory has been revised for 3 quarters, combined with factors such as the normalization of China‘s mobile phone inventory, the easing of semiconductor shortage, and the promotion of mobile phone specifications driven by new phones.