The global smartphone replacement rate continues to decline in 2023

Source: International E-commerce News

    Over the past decade, the global smartphone replacement rate has been declining due to reduced subsidies in some markets, an increase in low-income prepaid users, and improvements in smartphone quality.

    Based on key assumptions such as sustained geopolitical tensions and uncertain global economic prospects, TechInsights has lowered its global smartphone sales forecast for 2023 and 2024. Therefore, the replacement rate of smartphones will further decrease. Due to inflation, interest rate hikes, and uncertain economic prospects, the global smartphone replacement rate may drop to the lowest point of 23.5% (replacement cycle of 51 months) in 2023. Starting from 2024, due to economic recovery and 5G migration, the replacement rate will slowly rebound.

    All six regions around the world will follow a global model.

    In 2023, the replacement rates in the Asia Pacific, Western Europe, and North America regions will reach historic lows, but the replacement cycle in North America will still be shorter than in other regions.

    With the alleviation of the COVID-19, the exchange rate in Western Europe will increase in 2021, but the energy crisis, inflation and high interest rates have hindered the region‘s resilience.

    The Asia Pacific is a fragmented region - from 2024 to 2028, all countries have an upward trend, but the progress of mature 5G markets such as South Korea, Japan, China, and Australia will not be as good as that of emerging markets.

    Due to channel transfers, high rates of prepaid and low-income users in recent years, the replacement rate in Central and Latin America and Middle East Africa has continued to decline. However, in the coming years, better facilities such as 5G network construction will drive up the replacement rate.

    In recent years, the markets in Central and Eastern Europe have been fluctuating. Starting from 2024, despite the war and unstable economy, the region is expected to recover. However, by the end of our forecast window, its turnover rate will not exceed 2019.